Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Insolvency cometh, and that right soon(er)

Not that it matters, but the Social Security trustees report today that the system will be broke in 2041, a year ahead of schedule. The relevant passage goes thusly:
Annual cost will exceed tax income starting in 2017 at which time the annual gap will be covered with cash from redeeming special obligations of the Treasury, until these assets are exhausted in 2041.
To translate: For years now, payroll taxes have provided more income into the system than Social Security has disbursed to beneficiaries. In theory, this cash is supposed to have been held in the oft-discussed "trust fund." That trust fund is worth just about as much as the trust we have in Congress to not spend "free" money. Which is to say, not much. Instead, for decades we have been "borrowing" from the trust fund, taking the cash out and putting special Treasury bonds in. Starting in 2017, it will no longer be the case that payroll revenue exceeds benefits, so we will have to start cashing in those bonds. What I'm still trying to figure out is where the cash will come from, but that could just be me.

But whatever the details, the implications of this longstanding shell game are clear: Our retirement benefits are never really safe as long as they're in the hands of the government. Eventually -- in 2041, to be exact -- we're going to pick up that last shell and discover that there's no pea underneath. Liberal opponents of personal accounts argue that the government is more responsible than are the markets. If anyone has any actual proof of this, I'm all ears.

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