Saturday, April 02, 2005

First SAL of April

Good morning, all. After a hectic day yesterday, I only posted once. But fear not, I'm back today with your weekly dose of Saturday Assets and Liabilities, and will resume a normal blogging schedule on Monday.

Assets

The Pope. As his health fades rapidly this weekend, thoughts are already turning to the legacy of his pontificate. Just look at this representative article from the Washington Post. The most important paragraph runs thusly:
The Polish-born John Paul came to the papacy at the height of the Cold War in 1978 and presided during the West's triumphant defeat of communism. At the same time he emerged as a tough critic of global capitalism and defender of the poor, reaching out to the Third World far beyond any previous prelate. He drew large and often emotional crowds during his many tours in Latin America, Asia and Africa. He also opened dialogues with other religions.
He understood that the tyranny of Communism was not the way to help the poor. And he understood that tyranny was inherent in Communism itself, that it wasn't just a Soviet aberration (an understanding that led him to quash pro-Marxist "liberation theology" in Latin America). But at the same time, he recognized that, even if capitalist free markets were the best hope, they could only work if the participants were mindful of a higher authority. As I interpret them, his pronouncements "against" capitalism were not against the system itself. Rather, he preached against idolatry, against transforming free markets themselves into a god and then clinging to belief in them as an excuse for ignoring the poor.

A good point, that, and an important reminder for all of us who can sometimes let our respect for, and fascination with, markets lead us to forget that there are people behind the numbers.

Liabilities

Goldman Sachs. A GS analyst on Thursday sent oil prices skyrocketing after issuing a report in which the analyst speculated that oil prices could hit $105 in the not-so-distant future. This even as prices had been falling somewhat in the few days leading up to the announcement. Several things seem odd about this story. First, that $105 is so much larger than any other estimates currently floating around. Meanwhile, as one competing analyst opines in both these MarketWatch articles, GS's large oil derivatives positions might have, er, influenced what sorts of assumptions they might have used to reach certain conclusions. It's impossible to say whether there's any odor about this, but it certainly does seem strange.

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